TY - JOUR
KW - Cancer risk factors
KW - Finance
KW - Genetic epidemiology
KW - Genetics of disease
KW - Metaanalysis
KW - Randomized controlled trials
KW - Research Design
KW - Schizophrenia
AU - John P. A. Ioannidis
AB - Summary There is increasing concern that most current published research findings are false. The probability that a research claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other studies on the same question, and, importantly, the ratio of true to no relationships among the relationships probed in each scientific field. In this framework, a research finding is less likely to be true when the studies conducted in a field are smaller; when effect sizes are smaller; when there is a greater number and lesser preselection of tested relationships; where there is greater flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes; when there is greater financial and other interest and prejudice; and when more teams are involved in a scientific field in chase of statistical significance. Simulations show that for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true. Moreover, for many current scientific fields, claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias. In this essay, I discuss the implications of these problems for the conduct and interpretation of research.
BT - PLOS Medicine
DA - Aug 30, 2005
DO - 10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124
IS - 8
LA - en
N2 - Summary There is increasing concern that most current published research findings are false. The probability that a research claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other studies on the same question, and, importantly, the ratio of true to no relationships among the relationships probed in each scientific field. In this framework, a research finding is less likely to be true when the studies conducted in a field are smaller; when effect sizes are smaller; when there is a greater number and lesser preselection of tested relationships; where there is greater flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes; when there is greater financial and other interest and prejudice; and when more teams are involved in a scientific field in chase of statistical significance. Simulations show that for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true. Moreover, for many current scientific fields, claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias. In this essay, I discuss the implications of these problems for the conduct and interpretation of research.
PY - 0
EP - e124
T2 - PLOS Medicine
TI - Why Most Published Research Findings Are False
UR - https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124
VL - 2
Y2 - 2024-04-16
SN - 1549-1676
ER -